Highlights Hong Kong property prices are frothy and will continue to face headwinds. Real estate currently offers a poor risk-return trade off from an investment perspective, and will likely lag other asset classes in the medium to…

Highlights Through the 18 years of the euro, growth in 'core' Germany and France and 'periphery' Spain has equalled that in the U.S., U.K. and Canada. But Italy has severely underperformed since 2008. Italy's…

Special Report

The secular bond bull market is over. Safety is in a bubble. The shift from monetary to fiscal easing is the most likely candidate to prick the bubble in safety. In this piece we revise our yield portfolio to increase its resilience…

Special Report

Cuba will become a notable frontier market now that the Communist regime has no foreign geopolitical partner to prop it up. A poor demographic profile does not prevent the country from capitalizing on American tourism. It also stands…

Special Report

The complete annihilation of all human life represents the mother of all tail risks. We estimate that there is a 50% chance that doomsday will occur by 2290, and a 95% chance that it will occur by 2710. If the risk of doomsday is…

Special Report

The complete annihilation of all human life represents the mother of all tail risks. We estimate that there is a 50% chance that doomsday will occur by 2290, and a 95% chance that it will occur by 2710. If the risk of doomsday is…

Special Report

Investors are being forced into riskier asset classes by the TINA effect, but the gaping macro disequilibria makes it difficult for investors to see how we move back to equilibrium in a benign way. Monetary policy on its own is…

Special Report

The exponential rise in banks' non-standard credit assets has occurred in spite of the government's efforts to contain and regulate it. The government does not have full control over shadow banking and non-large banks. These have…