Special Report

Dear client, Our publishing schedule will be shifting over the next two weeks. Next Friday, we will publish a Special Report aggregating various pieces from our colleague Matt Gertken of BCA's Geopolitical Strategy detailing the…

Highlights President Trump has little to do with the ongoing EM selloff; The macro backdrop is the real culprit behind Turkey's woes, particularly the strong dollar... ... Which is a product of global policy divergence, with the…

Special Report

Dear Client, This is the first of a two-part Special Report dealing with the question of whether a significant pickup in global inflation may be lurking around the corner. In this week's report, we look back at the causes of the…

Special Report

Highlights Despite recent softness in the data, Swedish growth will remain robust over the next 6-12 months, supported by loose monetary conditions and solid export demand. Inflation has climbed back to the Riksbank 2% target, and…

Special Report

Highlights Slower nominal GDP growth explains virtually all of the increase in China's debt-to-GDP ratio over the past ten years. The authorities were unwilling to restrain debt growth as it became obvious that nominal income was…

Special Report

Highlights Slower nominal GDP growth explains virtually all of the increase in China's debt-to-GDP ratio over the past ten years. The authorities were unwilling to restrain debt growth as it became obvious that nominal income was…

Highlights An increase in the "synthetic" supply of bitcoins via financial derivatives, along with the launch of bitcoin-like alternatives by large established tech companies, will cause the cryptocurrency market to collapse…

Recommended Allocation  Highlights We are late cycle. Strong growth could turn in 2018 from a positive for risk assets into a negative. More risk-averse investors may thus want to turn cautious. But the last year of a bull run…

Highlights China stands out as the most likely candidate to send negative shock waves through EM and commodities in 2018. Granted the ongoing policy tightening in China will likely dampen money growth further, the only way mainland…

Highlights The sharp rally in Chinese developer stocks this year reflects a combination of the unwinding of "doomsday" bets and notable improvement in fundamentals rather than a bubble formation. The positive re-rating has…