Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian…
Dear Client, Please join me and my fellow BCA Strategists Caroline Miller and Arthur Budaghyan for a live webcast tomorrow, Friday, April 24 at 8:00 AM EDT (1:00 PM BST, 2:00 PM CEST, 8:00 PM HKT) where we will discuss the outlook…
Highlights The Chinese economy is recovering at a slower rate than the equity market has priced in. There is a high likelihood of negative revisions to Q2 EPS estimates and an elevated risk of a near-term price correction in Chinese…
Highlights Social distancing makes it impossible to do jobs that require close personal interaction, yet these are the very job sectors that have kept jobs growth alive in recent decades. If social distancing persists, then AI will…
WTI crude oil delivered to Cushing in May 2020 is trading below $0.00/bbl as this note is typed, and falling fast (Chart 1). This is an historical print. WTI for June delivery is trading at ~ $22.00/bbl. What we are observing is the…
Highlights Over the past year we have discussed “peak polarization” for the United States with many clients. We have held the contrarian view that political animosities within the US are nearing their peak. Feature Prior to…
Highlights Risk assets have rallied thanks to a healthy dose of economic stimulus and mounting evidence that the number of new COVID-19 cases has peaked. Unfortunately, the odds of a second wave of infections remain high. In the…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The Fed’s QE and ZIRP, the collapse in gasoline prices and extremely depressed breadth readings that are contrarily positive, all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish consumer discretionary…