Highlights The EM equity benchmark’s concentration in the top six stocks – that in turn correlate with US FAANGM – has risen substantially. Hence, the outlook for US mega-cap stocks will continue to significantly…
Please note that I will be hosting a webcast on Friday July 17 and that the webcast will replace next week’s report. Highlights Go tactically short stocks versus bonds. But express it as short DAX versus the US 10-year T-bond…
Dear Client, US Investment Strategy will take the first of two summer breaks next week, so there will be no publication on July 13th. We will return on July 20th with the latest installment of our Big Bank Beige Book, reviewing the five…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The coronavirus pandemic is not over. Enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus will soften the blow to the global economy, but there remain significant risks to growth over the next 12 months…
Highlights We are moving our tactical call on Chinese stocks from neutral to overweight, bringing it inline with our cyclical stance on Chinese equities. Our cyclical overweight stance is supported by several factors: the rate of…
Dear client, We are sending you our Quarterly Strategy Outlook today, where we outline our thoughts on the macro landscape and the direction of financial markets for the rest of the year and beyond. Next week, please join me for a…
Highlights The highly uncertain backdrop calls for taking less near-term risk: It may be boring, but it’s only prudent for asset allocators to limit risk exposures when the distribution of economic and public health outcomes is…
Highlights Should the DXY fail to breach below 92 in the coming months, momentum will be a risk to our short dollar positions. Another risk is valuation. The trade-weighted dollar is expensive, but not overly so. It is not especially…
Highlights The economic performance of Sweden, which did not have a lockdown, has been almost as bad as Denmark, which did have a lockdown. This proves that the current recession is not ‘man-made’, it is ‘pandemic-…
Highlights The cyclical rally in stocks is not over, but the S&P 500 will churn between 2800 and 3200 this summer. Supportive policy, robust household balance sheets and budding economic growth have put a floor under global…