Executive Summary Brazil: The Economic Rebound Will Not Last Brazil’s goldilocks phase of economic recovery, improving fiscal accounts and falling inflation will prove to be short lived. On the contrary, the country…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Brazil’s economy is heading into another recession in H2 this year. Inflation in Brazil continues to surprise to the upside: headline CPI is 12%, core…
Executive Summary Brazil: NPL Provisioning Cycles Explain Bank Share Prices Inflation is well above the central bank’s target. To assert their credibility, monetary authorities have no choice but to extend the rate…
The rally in Brazilian risk assets since early this year largely reflects a catch up to the pandemic boom in commodity prices. Going forward, unless commodity prices continue rising or global risk assets rally, Brazilian equities…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Russia is escalating its aggressiveness in Ukraine, marked by the shelling of a nuclear power station, troop reinforcements, and rhetorical threats of nuclear…
Brazilian risk assets have started the year on a positive note. After falling 23.5% in 2021 – and underperforming emerging market and global equities by 18.9% and 40.3%, respectively – Brazilian equities are up 14.3%…