Highlights So long as EM corporate and sovereign bond yields continue to rise, EM share prices will remain in a downtrend. EM corporate earnings growth has peaked while EM corporate profitability remains structurally weak. We…
Highlights There is growing evidence that China's industrial sector is slowing, as are Asian trade flows. EM stocks have seen their tops. Even though current trade tensions between the U.S. and China could well dissipate, we are at…
Highlights China and Brazil are two extremes in regard to investment and savings - the former saves and invests a lot, the latter very little. The key difference between Brazil and China is neither the existing amount of deposits nor…
Highlights The call on EM local bonds boils down to the outlook for EM exchange rates. Forthcoming EM currency depreciation will halt the rally in local bonds. EM currencies positively correlate with commodities prices but not with…
Highlights Breadth within EM equity markets has been deteriorating both in absolute terms and relative to DM equities. This points to a major top in EM share prices. In Brazil, falling inflation has led to a relapse in nominal GDP…
Highlights Geopolitical risks were overstated in 2017, but have now become understated; If Donald Trump becomes an early "lame duck" president, he will seek relevance abroad; This could mean a protectionist White House, or…
Highlights Agricultural markets are informationally efficient for the most part, which is to say that at any given time, prices already reflect most public information available to traders, and a lot of private information as well. Even…