Highlights The current market action in the EM equity space qualifies as a bear market, not a correction. Yet the magnitude of this drawdown (25%) is still considerably smaller than the median stock price drop (45%) of previous bear…
Highlights Our October house view meeting was mostly uneventful, ... : The backup in bond yields has so far proceeded in line with our expectations, and the BCA consensus is that they have not risen enough to pose a fundamental threat…
Highlights Rising U.S. bond yields will continue to put downward pressure on global stocks in the near term, but will not trigger an equity bear market until rates reach restrictive territory. We are still at least 12 months away from…
Highlights Duration: The market is only priced for a fed funds rate of 2.83% by the end of 2019. This is well below the range of 3.25% to 3.5% that will prevail if the Fed sticks to its current 25 basis points per quarter rate hike…
Highlights Domino dynamics continue escalating within the EM universe confirming that a major bear market is underway. Several global cyclical market segments have recently experienced technical breakdowns. This confirms that global…
Highlights Macro Outlook: Global growth is decelerating and the composition of that growth is shifting back towards the United States. Policy backdrop: The specter of trade wars represents a real and immediate threat to risk assets.…