Base Metals & Iron Ore
Highlights The euro doesn't have the key attributes of a funding or a risk-off currency. This means its behavior is not fixed. While in the past it has behaved as a risk-off currency, this year it has traded as a risk-on one, correlating with key risky…
Highlights The current mini-upswing in the global mini-cycle started in May and is likely to end around January. On a 6-month horizon, lean against the rally in industrial metals. Equity investors should underweight Basic Resources, and especially…
Highlights Chart of the WeekChina Developments Significant##BR##To Base Metal Prices
Shifting Gears In China: The Impact On Base Metals…
Highlights The synchronized upturn lifting global GDPs will pull demand for stainless steel higher, as consumers increase purchases of autos, ovens, refrigerators, freezers and other household durables. That's good news for nickel, since roughly two-thirds…
Highlights The macro environment remains positive for risk assets. Nonetheless, the shadow of the '87 stock market crash is a reminder that major market corrections can occur even when the earnings and economic growth backdrop is upbeat. Our base case…
Highlights We estimate total Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) investment will rise from US$120 billion this year to about US$170 billion in 2020. The size of BRI investments is about 47 times smaller than China's annual gross fixed capital formation (…
Feature The Brazilian economy is finally improving following a devastating depression of about 3 years, where real GDP dropped by a whopping 7.4%. Does the current economic revival warrant a bullish stance on its financial markets? If the global risk-on…
Highlights Chinese monetary conditions have tightened on the margin, but have remained fairly stimulative compared with previous years, likely the key reason why overall growth has remained reasonably robust. Listed Chinese firms reported strong and…
Highlights Beijing's continued focus on reducing excess industrial capacity in the lead-up to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party will keep iron ore and steel markets buoyant for the balance of the year. The trajectory of prices further out the…
Highlights Industrial metals prices are signaling that China's business conditions are presently robust, but they lag the credit and money measures. The most reliable leading (forward looking) indicators of Chinese business cycle have been money and…