Base Metals & Iron Ore

Highlights The slowdown in global industrial activity appears to have bottomed. This, along with an apparent shared desire for a ceasefire in the Sino-US trade war, points toward a measured recovery in manufacturing and global trade, which will contribute…

Highlights The global manufacturing cycle is likely to bottom soon, and consumption and services remain robust. The risk of recession over the next 12 months is low. This suggests that equities will continue to outperform bonds. But the risks to this…

Commodity demand appears to be turning up, based on our assessment of global industrial activity. As demand picks up, we expect industrial commodity prices will move higher (Chart of the Week, top panel). For all practical purposes, central banks and…

Away from the Sino-U.S. trade-war headlines – and the remarkable commodity price volatility they produce – apparent steel consumption in China is up 9.5% y/y in the first seven months of this year. This is being spurred by fiscal stimulus directed at…

Chart II-1Is Deflation In Steel And Coal Back? Is Deflation In Steel And Coal Back…

Highlights The current global trade downtrend has primarily been due to a contraction in Chinese imports. The latter reflects weakness in China's domestic demand in general and capital spending in particular. The current global manufacturing and trade…

Highlights Central banks globally have turned dovish, with the Fed virtually promising to cut rates in July. But this will be an “insurance” cut, like 1995 and 1998, not the beginning of a pre-recessionary easing cycle. The global expansion remains…

Highlights Coming up on the deadline for President Trump’s China – U.S. tariff ultimatum, tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports could go to 25% from 10% on Friday – the outlook for base metals remains complicated, particularly for aluminum and copper.1…