Base Metals & Iron Ore
Highlights The EM equity benchmark’s concentration in the top six stocks – that in turn correlate with US FAANGM – has risen substantially. Hence, the outlook for US mega-cap stocks will continue to significantly impact the EM equity benchmark. US…
Highlights Recommended Allocation
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Cash Injections Versus COVID Infections…
The Speed Of Recovery Will Drive Copper Prices…
Highlights Our base case reflects our view that China’s strong fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with a weaker US dollar, will provide a favorable backdrop for copper markets in 2H20. Supply factors are for the most part reflected in current copper…
Highlights The duration of this crisis and the details of the plan to reopen the economy will determine whether the initial uptick in median home prices will prove to be transitory. Phase I provides room for construction to resume at least partially,…
Metal Demand Is Set To Firm Up…
Highlights Base metals are rebounding faster than oil in 2Q20, reflecting China’s first-in-first-out recovery from the global GDP hit caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (Chart of the Week). By 3Q20, the rebound in oil markets could be stronger than expected…
Highlights Uncertainty over the duration of lockdowns globally will continue to hamper the estimation of the global demand recovery for commodities. This uncertainty will continue to fuel safe-haven demand for USD for the balance of 2Q20. In addition,…
Highlights Yesterday we published a Special Report titled EM: Foreign Currency Debt Strains. We are upgrading our stance on EM local currency bonds from negative to neutral. Before upgrading to a bullish stance, we would first need to upgrade our stance…
Excess Liquidity Is Quickly Accelerating…