Banks
We focus on 3 stress-points in the economy and markets which segue to several high conviction investment recommendations.
There is a considerable dichotomy between the EM equity universe and EM corporate credit markets. EM credit markets remain mispriced. EM currencies are at risk of renewed depreciation. This will push sovereign and corporate spreads, as well as high-yielding domestic bond yields, higher. Continue underweighting Indonesian stocks, sovereign credit and domestic bonds within their respective benchmarks.
Stronger GDP growth will permit the Fed to hike rates once more before year-end, no earlier than September. However, the feedback loop between the Fed and financial conditions will prevent a second rate hike this year.
Colombia's structural growth outlook is superior to many other developing economies. In the near-term, however, Colombia's economy is set to weaken materially. Upgrade Colombian equities and sovereign credit to neutral versus EM benchmarks. Continue betting on further yield curve flattening/inversion and buy 10-year domestic bonds on weakness. Go long Colombian bank stocks / short Peruvian banks, and stay short the peso.
How big a problem are the non-performing loans in Italy and Greece? And what is the solution?
Like the economy, banks show no major imbalances. But the "glide path" for credit is slower than in previous cycles.