Banks

Banks Earnings Deluge…

Highlights New structural recommendation: long GBP/USD. The substantial Brexit discount in the pound makes it a long-term buy for investors who can tolerate near-term volatility. The most powerful equity play on a fading Brexit discount would be the U.K. homebuilders. Specifically, Persimmon…

Highlights The Chinese economy is still slowing, and there is not yet enough evidence from forward-looking economic data to suggest a turnaround is imminent. Deflation has returned to China’s industrial sector. Even though overall price deceleration has been relatively mild, it is further…

Highlights MARKET FORECASTS Fourth Quarter 2019 Strategy Outlook: A "Show Me" Market…

Highlights The global manufacturing cycle is likely to bottom soon, and consumption and services remain robust. The risk of recession over the next 12 months is low. This suggests that equities will continue to outperform bonds. But the risks to this optimistic scenario are rising. A denting…

Energy Stocks Are Heading North Energy stocks are heading north…

Staying Patient With Banks…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Small cracks are forming in the labor market according to the ISM manufacturing, ISM services and NFIB surveys, and if the Fed goes ahead and cuts interest rates in half in the coming year as the bond market currently forecasts, then a recession would be a…

Highlights The lingering global manufacturing recession and the substantial drop in U.S. bond yields have been behind the decoupling between both EM stocks and the S&P 500, and cyclical and defensive equities. Neither the most recent economic data, nor the relative performance of global…