BCA Indicators/Model
Highlights Our COVID Unrest Index reveals that Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil, and South Africa are the major emerging markets most at risk of significant social unrest. China, Russia, Thailand, and Malaysia are the least at risk – in the short run.…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of April 30, 2020. The model has not made significant changes this month. Now Spain, Australia, Sweden and the US are the top four overweight…
Highlights A simple three-factor model has outperformed the DXY index since 1980. The main variables have been relative changes in interest rates, valuation and sentiment. The dominant factor varies from one currency to the next. The model recommends a…
Highlights The collapse in oil prices supercharges the geopolitical risks stemming from the global pandemic and recession. Low oil prices should discourage petro-states from waging war, but Iran may be an important exception. Russian instability is one…
Highlights Q1/2020 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark by -40bps during the first quarter of the year – a number that would have been far worse if not for the changes in exposures for duration (…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of March 31, 2020. The model upgraded Canada and Australia to overweight, financed by a reduction in the overweights of the US, Italy, Sweden and…
Late last year we started closely monitoring the Value Line Geometric Index (gauging the median stock, VLGI) and nominated it as a “Chart Of The Year” candidate. This Index’s track record was, and remains, 100% accurate in leading the SPX peaks. As a…
Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence across the world. We…
Highlights The path of least resistance for the DXY remains up. The internal dynamics of financial markets remain constructive for the DXY. We explore more key indicators to complement the analysis in our February 28 report. Our limit buy on NOK/SEK was…
Feature Global markets are moving to price in a negative growth impact from COVID-19. It is impossible to gauge with any precision the magnitude and duration of this negative growth shock. We discussed the potential growth trajectory of China's business…