Auto Manufacturers
Highlights A recovery in Chinese auto sales is not imminent. Car sales will likely stage only a rate-of-change improvement, moving from deep to mild contraction or stagnation over the next three-to-six months. Low-speed electric vehicles are a cheap substitute for regular low-end cars. Their…
Highlights MARKET FORECASTS
Fourth Quarter 2019 Strategy Outlook: A "Show Me" Market…
Highlights European and global growth will rebound in the fourth quarter but the rebound will lack longevity. Bonds: Expect bond yields to edge modestly higher, especially for those yields that are deeply in negative territory. Underweight German bunds in a European or global bond portfolio.…
Highlights While a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence that plunges the global economy into recession cannot be excluded, it is far from our base case. Provided the trade war does not spiral out of control, it is highly likely that global equities will outperform bonds over the next 12 months…
Auto Components: Aiming For Pole Position…
Highlights Korean stocks are facing downside risks over the next several months. Exports will continue to contract on falling semiconductor prices and retrenching global demand. Growth deceleration and low inflation will lead the central bank to cut rates in 2019. Within an EM equity…
Highlights China’s recently released pro-auto-consumption policy will lead to a moderate 5-8% recovery in auto sales/production this year. However, the impact from the stimulus will be much less than the previous two episodes in 2009 and 2016. The value of Chinese auto sales is likely to…
As we near the end of an impressive year for equities, the relationship between price growth and earnings growth and how to best position a portfolio for 2018 bears some reflection. The purpose of this report, rather than take a position on inflation or growth, is to create a roadmap such that…
Highlights Beige Book highlights disconnect between inflation words and inflation data. Peak in auto sales is not a harbinger of recession. Capital spending still trending higher. Inflation and inflation surprise will need to move higher before Fed hikes again. Big disconnect between 10-…
Feature This is the second of three Special Reports on Electric Vehicles. In the first report published two weeks ago,1 we looked at the current costs of ownership of a typical mass-market EV, including and excluding subsidies, versus a similar Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). Based on…