防御/リスク

短期的な見通しは欧州の銀行株と防衛関連エクイティにとって弱含みです。銀行をニュートラルに格下げし、防衛関連エクイティは「噂で売って、ニュースで買う」パターンで取引されると引き続き予想します。

米国ハイクオリティポートフォリオは12月までの期間でベンチマークを下回り、0.14%のリターンを記録しました。一方、SPYベンチマークは0.78%のリターンを記録しました。直近の3か月間のパフォーマンスでは、米国ハイクオリティポートフォリオがベンチマークを約545bps劣る結果となりました。 

政府データがない中で強気市場へのリスクを評価するために追跡している変数について議論します。現時点では、明らかな警告サインは見受けられません。株式およびフィクスト・インカムを引き続きオーバーウェイトとします。

Five questions, five answers from the road. We unpack what Europe’s biggest investors are worried about right now, from trade‑war whiplash to bund‑versus‑Treasury positioning; and where the real opportunities still lie.

While most investors spent the month of April frantically refreshing their Twitter feeds for the next tariff announcement, we reiterate our stance that details on tariffs should be left to day traders. Long-term investors should be focused on the bigger story: the triple selloff in US stocks, bonds and the dollar. Foreign investors perceive that there has been a deterioration in governance in the US, and are requiring a higher risk premium from America. While Trump has walked back some of his most aggressive rhetoric, business investment will not resume unless we get clarity in policy. We continue to recommend a defensive stance, but downgrade duration from overweight to neutral to protect ourselves against shocks to the term premium. We also introduce Bitcoin to ours asset coverage. We upgrade it from underweight to neutral.

European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?

Investors should not chase the rally in European defense names any further. Too much good news has been priced in too quickly.

Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.