先進国
The structural outlook for European assets remains bright, but near-term headwinds argue for longer duration and caution on equities. Here are three takes that call for a temporary pullback in European assets, and two that explore the long-term bullish…
Are bond yields overextended? We introduce a new global technical indicator that helps spot mean-reversion opportunities and shows which markets are nearing exhaustion.
We perform a decomposition of yields moves across six major developed government bond markets to get to the bottom of what’s been driving the global bond selloff of the past eight months.
The outperformance of European small caps is coming to an end. Our Chart Of The Week comes from our European Investment Strategy team.The team identifies several headwinds for small caps in Europe in the near term. Small caps’ performance is primarily…
Tokyo CPI surprised to the upside in April, signaling that Japanese inflation shows no sign of deceleration and putting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a complicated position. Investors should remain maximum underweight in JGBs and overweight in…
President Trump’s signature bill is surprising to the upside with budget deficits, as predicted by our Geopolitical Strategists. Some form of the bill is guaranteed to pass, no matter how many tries it takes. The bill will cut taxes more than…
Last Friday, President Trump announced new 50% tariffs on imported goods from the European Union (EU), effective June 1st, and threatened US company Apple with 25% tariffs unless it made iPhones in the US. Global stock markets reacted negatively to the news,…
The rebound in UK retail sales and consumer confidence surprised to the upside, and suggests that the re-acceleration in inflation observed earlier this week may not be transitory. UK retail sales rose 1.2% m/m in April from 0.1% m/m, significantly…
Business sentiment improved slightly in May, corroborating the message from other soft-data indicators of Eurozone business activity, which remain weak but are not plummeting. The increase in the future expectations index to 88.9 from 87.4 a month…
May PMIs confirm the improvement in confidence due to fewer concerns about US tariffs. Manufacturing flash PMI numbers showed resilience. The services activity PMI is more of a mixed bag.The US composite index beat estimates, increasing to 52.1 from 50.6,…