ゴールド

イスラエルとイランの紛争が激化し、原油価格が上昇しています。我々は、さらなる地政学的緊張、不確実性、および経済への影響に備え、短期的および長期的な上昇に対応できる2つのストラテジーを通じてポジショニングを行っています。

Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.

Investors often rely on past relationships to predict future outcomes. This strategy is at risk now that several commodity correlations have broken down. We explore the causes and sustainability of the new commodity relationships.

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in gold mining stocks, European banks, and US stocks ex-Tech should a recession not be imminent. 

Oil, copper, and gold futures curves have recently experienced abnormal shifts and twists. Brent is no longer fully backwardated, copper curves on the LME and CME have diverged, and gold is in a steep contango. 

We examine the drivers and implications of these shifts for prices and curve structure across the three commodities. 

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.