Estados Unidos
Las medidas de estímulo que impulsaban la expansión pos-COVID empezaban a disminuir después de cinco años y encaminaban a la economía hacia una recesión que se produciría de forma orgánica. Ahora que DOGE y la guerra comercial en múltiples frentes han acelerado el calendario, reiteramos nuestras recomendaciones de aversión al riesgo.
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
This week, our three screeners cover: Equity plays in Low Vol & Low Beta outside the US; Chinese stocks; and stocks that are buys according to the PEG ratio.
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
