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Monetary

Can Housing Save The US Economy?
Housing is the most interest-rate-sensitive sector of the economy. Yet, the very aggressive monetary tightening cycle has only had a muted effect on home prices. While recent housing market data have been mixed, prices have not tumbled. Indeed, a tight…
Daily Insights
Can The New Coalition Save South Africa?
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the South African election presents a window of opportunity for productivity-boosting structural reforms, such as privatization, to coincide with monetary and fiscal easing necessary to fend off…
Daily Insights
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The Bank Of Japan Joins The Doves

In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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South Africa: After Hegemony

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

Geopolitical Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken
UK Inflation Expectations Are Still Well Anchored
The BoE had to deal with a stagflationary headache in the second half of 2023. Inflation was stickier and growth was weaker in the UK than in many of its DM peers. This trend turned around earlier this year with a late-cycle growth reacceleration. The UK…
Daily Insights
BoJ Exercises Caution
In a largely expected move, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0-0.1% in June. It maintained the pace of bond buying at JPY 6tr per month but signaled it would lay out a plan to reduce its balance sheet next month, without offering any…
Daily Insights
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The US Consumer Is NOT In Great Shape

Global consumer spending is likely to slow over the coming quarters, culminating in a major economic downturn in late 2024 or early 2025. Investors should maintain benchmark exposure to equities for now but look to turn more defensive by the end of this summer.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Could Goods Prices Slow Disinflation?
Goods prices have been normalizing following the pandemic binge on goods spending. The May CPI release indicated that durable goods and nondurable goods prices both continued to contract. Investors and policymakers have thus turned their attention to other…
Daily Insights
Where Have All The Older Workers Gone?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, job losers not on temporary layoff (‘bad’ unemployment) will need to rise further for the Fed to reach its 2 percent inflation target. Although prime-age participation has surged, the participation of older…
Daily Insights
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Fed Keeps September On The Table

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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