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Manufacturing

Flash US Composite PMI Unchanged In November
The US flash PMI sent a mixed signal about economic activity in November. The Composite index was unchanged at 50.7 – beating expectations of a slight decline to 50.4. The stable reading comes on the back of a deterioration in manufacturing and a slight…
Daily Insights
Inventory Cycles And Markets
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory restocking worldwide will support the…
Daily Insights
European Flash PMIs Beat Expectations Yet Remain Weak
European flash PMI estimates for November sent a slightly less pessimistic signal on Thursday. The Eurozone composite PMI climbed by 0.6 points to 47.1, beating expectations of a more muted increase to 46.8. Notably, both the manufacturing and services…
Daily Insights
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The Interplay Between Inventory Cycles And Markets

Contrary to the prevalent belief in the global investment community, goods/merchandise inventories in the US and East Asia are rather elevated. Financial markets respond to final demand fluctuations, not inventory restocking. Global manufacturing/trade will continue contracting, even though the pace of contraction might moderate in the near run. We recommend that investors fade the current rally.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Ziyuan Huang, Arthur Budaghyan
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Poland: The Post-Election Market Strategy

Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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The Midwest: The Pivot Of US History
Special Report

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
On The Underperformance Of Palladium Versus Platinum
As we anticipated in an Insight we published in May, palladium continues to underperform platinum. Last week, platinum's discount to palladium shrunk to its smallest since August 2018. While the prices of both metals have fallen so far this year, palladium's…
Daily Insights
China: Heed The Signal From Positive Data Surprises?
On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y following a 5.5% y/y increase in…
Daily Insights
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Fade The Rebound
The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November, climbing 14 points to its highest level since April. The headline index suggests that manufacturing activity is expanding in New York State – a positive…
Daily Insights
Reasons For A Later Recession Start Date
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later.  Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second half of the year. They see the…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics