Inflation

Mexico’s August headline CPI edged up to 3.3%, but remains comfortably within Banxico’s target range. While services inflation continues to prove sticky, the broader inflation backdrop remains benign, reducing odds of Banxico tightening more than is priced in…

The August NFIB survey weakened, with softer hiring signals reinforcing that the labor market is not overheating or adding to inflation. The Small Business Optimism Index fell more than expected to 98.7, driven by weaker expectations. The report reversed much…

Sweden’s August inflation miss reverses July's core spike, strengthening the case for fading Riksbank tightening. CPIF held at 0.7% y/y, below the 0.9% consensus, while CPIF excluding energy eased from 0.6% to 0.5%, undershooting the 0.7% consensus and…

Indonesian headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.2%, moving closer to Bank Indonesia’s upper tolerance bound. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect inflation to remain elevated as higher food and energy import costs combine with the government’s continued…

German inflation was cooler than expected in August, with little evidence that the energy shock is generating broader second-round effects. CPI rose 0.2% m/m, down from 0.8% in July, while annual inflation edged up to 2.9% from 2.8%. The headline acceleration…

Underlying US inflation remains sticky, with a broad composite measure holding about 0.5 percentage points above the level consistent with the Fed’s price stability target. Those who claim that inflation has been somewhat sticky as of late are not imagining…

The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged at 1%, against a backdrop of weak domestic demand and a still-elevated energy import bill. Although inflation has slowed and domestic demand subdued, the BoT continues to face significant imported inflation…

Australia’s latest inflation beat will keep RBA tightening risk alive, but the forces shaping inflation over the next year are becoming more disinflationary. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% y/y in July from 3.8%, but exceeded the 3.3% consensus. While trimmed-mean…

August global flash PMIs showed manufacturing holding up while services activity strengthened further. As discussed during our BCA Live meeting, US manufacturing softened marginally to 53.2 from 53.9, against expectations of a flat reading, but stayed at a…

Softer UK labor data argues for a 2s30s gilt steepener, not a broad duration rally. Private-sector wage growth ex. bonuses slowed to 2.8% y/y in the three months to June, the weakest since late 2020, while vacancies fell to 707k, the lowest in more than five…