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Emerging Markets

Base Effects Distort Signal From Chinese Exports
China’s trade release shows exports grew for the second consecutive month in April. However, base effects are distorting the signal. In particular, the two-month-long Shanghai lockdown that started at the end of March 2022 weighed on Chinese exports in April…
Daily Insights
Indian Stocks: Do Not Bottom Fish Just Yet
The Indian equity market has fallen by about 15% from its peak last year. Nevertheless, our Emerging Markets Strategists expect a further decline as both drivers of stock prices – EPS growth and multiples – remain vulnerable in India. EPS will contract due…
Daily Insights
CBAM Likely To Be Inflationary
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impart an upward bias to prices in the EU and its trading partners’ economies. Within the EU, the CBAM will have an inflationary…
Daily Insights
Indian Stocks: Is It Time To Upgrade?

Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
China’s Politburo: No Helicopter Money
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the late April meeting of China’s Politburo suggests that the Chinese government will maintain the accommodative macroeconomic policies outlined in March. Compared to last December’s Central…
Daily Insights
The 2023 Outlook For Consumer Spending In China

China’s reopening, combined with a slew of pro-consumption policy stimuli, will likely boost household consumption by 10% in nominal terms in 2023 from a year ago. Some of the hardest hit service sectors during the pandemic will experience a strong recovery. Within the A-share market, investors should overweight the consumer discretionary sector versus the Chinese CSI300 benchmark.

China Investment Strategy
Caveat Emptor (GeoRisk Update)

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Chinese Manufacturing Activity Shrinks, Non-Manufacturing Slows
China’s NBS Composite PMI relapsed to 54.4 in April from 57 – the first monthly decline since the index bottomed at 42.6 in December. Importantly, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices fell. In particular, the manufacturing PMI dropped 2.7…
Daily Insights
Expectations Of A US Dollar Demise Are Premature

The risk-reward of the US dollar is currently positive. If a US recession is not imminent, then US bond yields will move higher, thus supporting the greenback. If the US enters a recession soon, the US dollar will benefit because it is counter-cyclical. Besides, the US dollar has not been as weak as the DXY index suggests.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
The End Of The Tightening Cycle

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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