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Economy

Timing The Bottom In China’s Stock Market

The conditions for a sustainable rally in Chinese stocks have not been met. In this report we discuss the four signposts which we will closely monitor to gauge when it will be warranted to upgrade our stance on Chinese equities both in absolute terms and relative to the global stock benchmark.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
A Trading Range In Oil Prices
Special Report

Global oil supply will slightly exceed demand in the next six months, resulting in a small surplus. Brent oil prices will trade in a range with a floor at $80 per barrel, barring any geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and/or escalation in the West-Russia conflict.

Emerging Markets Strategy
US PPI Inflation Slows In October
US PPI inflation slowed to a lower-than-expected 8.0% y/y in October from a downwardly revised 8.4% y/y. Similarly, core PPI inflation eased to 6.7% y/y from 7.1% y/y, below expectations of 7.2% y/y. Both core goods and services contributed to the decline. …
Daily Insights
China’s October Economic Data Disappoint
Key indicators of Chinese domestic economic activity in October generated negative surprises. Retail sales contracted by 0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of a growth slowdown from 2.5% to 0.7%. Similarly, industrial production and fixed assets investment…
Daily Insights
German Investors Becoming Less Pessimistic
November’s reading of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment reveals that investors are becoming less pessimistic about the Eurozone economy. The expectations and current situation indices for Germany and the Euro Area jumped significantly above consensus…
Daily Insights
Credit Card Payment Processors: Living On Borrowed Time
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service is overweight credit card companies, but only over a short investment horizon. All of the largest credit card processing companies, such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, have delivered strong Q3-22 sales…
Daily Insights
Eurozone IP Delivers Second Consecutive Positive Surprise
Euro Area industrial production expanded by 4.9% y/y in September, following an upwardly revised 2.8% y/y and beating expectations of a 3.0% y/y increase. Similarly, the 0.9% m/m increase also exceeded consensus estimates of 0.5% m/m. Higher production of…
Daily Insights
An Imminent Chinese Property Recovery?
Shares of Chinese property developers rallied sharply on Monday following news of Beijing’s 16-point plan to help resuscitate its struggling property market. The measures announced include extensive support for both property developers as well as home buyers.…
Daily Insights
NY Fed Inflation Expectations Rebound
Results from the New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations underscore that the Fed still has its work cut out for it. Household inflation expectations rebounded with median one-year-ahead expectations increasing from 5.4% to 5.9%,…
Daily Insights
Will Americans Continue To Spend?

In this report we scrutinize the state of US consumer finances, which are a key driver of the Payment Processing Industry. We expect demand for services to pull back in the early 2023 on the back of still high inflation and tighter monetary policy. The payment processing companies thrive but live on borrowed time. We are overweight for now but monitor this position closely.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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