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Economy

China: Flirting With Deflation

China is facing a risk of deflation. Marginal interest rate cuts and targeted stimulus will be insufficient to boost China’s growth given the current deflationary mindset and the danger is that the economy may be entering a liquidity trap. Deflation is bullish for government bonds, but negative for equity prices. Chinese share prices will continue to decline.

China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Homebuilder Sentiment Turns Positive
US Homebuilder confidence surprised to the upside on Monday, with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index jumping from 50 to 55 in June – beating expectations of 51. This marks the first time in 11 months that the index rises above the 50 level, signaling favorable…
Daily Insights
A Looming Sugar Crash?
After a brief decline, sugar prices have once again been climbing higher over the past two weeks. The price of the commodity is nearly back to its late-April high, bringing its year-to-date gain back up to 32%. While overbought conditions and stretched…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Inflation: The Worst Is Over
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service Eurozone inflation likely to diminish further. First, policy is tight. The impact on leading economic variables is already visible, with M1 collapsing, credit demand plunging, credit…
Daily Insights
Head Fake Or Real Deal Webcast: Poll Results And Client Questions

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
So Far, So Good On The Road To 4,500

As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Singapore NODX: A Pessimistic Signal For Global Manufacturing
Singapore’s exports have historically acted as a good gauge for the health of the global economy. As a small open economy that is extremely exposed to fluctuations in the Asian and global manufacturing cycles, Singapore’s exports – particularly of electronics…
Daily Insights
BoJ: From Policy Divergence To Policy Convergence?
The Japanese yen was the worst performing major currency on Friday. The weakness followed news that the BoJ kept its policy rate untouched at -0.1% – as widely expected – and did not make any changes to its yield curve control program. While the BoJ statement…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Sentiment: A Durable Rebound?
Preliminary results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sent a positive signal about household morale in June. The Sentiment index rose by a greater-than-anticipated 4.7 points to 63.9 on the back of improvements in both the Current…
Daily Insights
Will Global Cyclical Equity Sectors Continue Outperforming?
Once again, global cyclical stocks have recently been outperforming defensive sectors. This comes after the late-2022/early-2023 relative rally in cyclical stocks was cut short by the emergence of bank turmoil in early March. Valuations are providing a…
Daily Insights

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