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Economy

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Fade The Rebound
The New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index unexpectedly returned to positive territory in November, climbing 14 points to its highest level since April. The headline index suggests that manufacturing activity is expanding in New York State – a positive…
Daily Insights
China's Impossible Trinity
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened liquidity and steered interest rates…
Daily Insights
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A Plausible Path Back To 2% Inflation: Revisiting Our TIPS Golden Rule

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

US Bond Strategy by Robert Timper
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The ‘Hidden’ World Recession Of 2022 And Why It Matters Today

The latest ‘nowcast’ for world economic growth in the fourth quarter has plunged to just 1.2 percent, marking the cusp of another world recession. One important implication is that expectations for oil demand growth and industrial metal demand growth are way too optimistic.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Beware Of China’s Stealth Liquidity Tightening

Many commentators have attributed the latest increase in Chinese interest rates to an improving economy, the large issuance of government bonds, the tax payments season, and other technical factors. Yet, these explanations are missing the key point: the PBoC has steered interbank rates higher to defend the currency. Higher borrowing costs are the last thing the mainland economy now needs.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Soft US Inflation Cements The Fed's Pause
US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a 25 basis point rate cut by next…
Daily Insights
US Small Businesses Are Concerned
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the October survey results…
Daily Insights
ZEW Investor Sentiment Rebounds
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment continues to send an optimistic signal. German sentiment jumped from -1.1 to +9.8 in November – its highest level since March and beating expectations of a smaller improvement to 5.0. Similarly, expectations for the Euro…
Daily Insights
On The Outlook For The Greenback
The DXY collapsed to a 2 ½ month low on Tuesday following the softer than anticipated CPI inflation release which prompted investors to bring forward their Fed rate cut expectations (see The Numbers). This marks an acceleration of a budding downtrend since…
Daily Insights
Stay Long 10-Year German Bunds Vs Short 10-Year JGBs
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service remains long 10-year German bunds vs short 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as a tactical trade. This trade mirrors the team's two highest conviction strategic views in government bond space,…
Daily Insights

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