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Economic Growth

The Gold/Silver Ratio And The Global Economic Recovery
The gold/silver ratio (GSR) entered a well-defined tapered wedge formation with downside support near 80, and an upside breakout around the 90 level. Back in 2020, this ratio was caught up in a race towards major overhead resistance at 100, but finally hit a…
Daily Insights
Shift Growth And Value Back To Neutral
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the outperformance of Growth sectors most likely has run its course. The team has opened an overweight in Growth vs. Value in April. Since then, the trade is up 2.73%. They are now closing this…
Daily Insights
BCA’s Monetary Indicator: Less Constructive Than Meets The Eye
In a recently published report, BCA’s Bank Credit Analyst service reviewed the BCA Valuation Index, alongside three other US equity indicators which are published in Section III of each month’s report. The other indices included in our suite of equity…
Daily Insights
The Problem With European Earnings

European real GDP growth is stabilizing, so why would European equities continue to trade sideways for the remainder of the year? The answer lies with nominal growth and its impact on earnings.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
When (And How) To Say When

Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Is The Easy Part Of The Disinflation Process Over?
Thursday’s US CPI release showed that the disinflation trend remains intact with the monthly print remaining soft at 0.2% m/m, slightly lower than expected. The SPY initially rallied on the downside inflation surprise but quickly reversed its gains…
Daily Insights
Chinese Credit Growth Disappoints In July
Chinese credit and money data fell significantly below expectations in July. The CNY 0.53 trillion increase in aggregate social financing marks a significant slowdown from CNY 4.22 trillion in June and came in significantly below expectations of CNY 1.10…
Daily Insights
Unsustainable Divergences
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the gap that has formed between the S&P 500 price and its operating profit margins, as well as the divergence between the S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio and the 30-year TIPS yield are…
Daily Insights
Waddington’s Landscape, Many Worlds, And The Folly Of Economic Forecasting
Special Report

Investors should think probabilistically about the economy and financial markets. In the face of non-linear effects, the range of possible outcomes can be very large. A systematic application of Bayes’ rule can help improve decision-making.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Mind The Gaps

Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics