Economic Growth
Our last publication of 2023 is an illustrated guide to our view that the economy will enter a recession around midyear. We expect equities will underperform Treasuries and cash over much of 2024, but we are waiting to turn tactically defensive until more investors are drawn into the soft-landing camp, capping the equity rally.
In this week’s report, we present our dollar view for 2024 and beyond, with a few trade ideas.
The short answer, according to our colleagues at BCA’s Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) is straightforward, but not simple: Political economy – i.e., how states organize and operate their economies to support policy and advance their interests. …
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, domestic demand and corporate profits will disappoint across mainstream Emerging Market economies (excluding China, India, Korea, and Taiwan) in H1 2024. Retail sales volume growth has been…
As expected, the ECB kept its policy rate unchanged on Thursday. In the updated macroeconomic projections, the central bank revised down its inflation and growth forecasts for next year. It now expects inflation to ease to 2.7% in 2024 – 0.5 percentage…
The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.
The Thai economy has continued to underwhelm its ASEAN peers since the pandemic. It grew at a measly 1.5% in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year. Thai stocks and the currency have sold off as well. That said, the recently elected government…
China’s credit expanded by less than expected in November. The CNY 2.45 trillion increase in aggregate financing fell short of anticipations of CNY 2.595 trillion following a CNY 1.845 trillion rise in October. Similarly, the CNY 1.09 trillion in new yuan…
As expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range on Friday. Although the statement continued to indicate that the Fed is prepared to tighten further, it also acknowledged that there has been a slowdown in economic growth and that…
Weaker-than-anticipated economic data caused a sharp decline in UK gilt yields over the past few days with the 10 year yield now at its lowest since May. The weakness in economic data was broad-based across various sectors of the UK economy. In the…