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Currencies

A Paradigm Shift In Chinese Economic Policy

There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. The main purpose of government policy is now managing downside risks to the economy in both the short and long term. The priority for the central government is to build an economic and financial system resilient against potential negative shocks, including external threats.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
A Period Of Indigestion For The Euro
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy & Foreign Exchange Strategy services conclude that for the next one-to-three months, European data could continue to underwhelm US variables, which will weigh on the euro. The euro has been giving back recent…
Daily Insights
A Natural Endowment Does Not Benefit Norwegian Krone
NOK is the worst performing major currency year-to-date, down more than 6% against the dollar and 5% against the euro. That is on top of a nearly 10% drop in 2022. Notably, as a major oil producer, and increasingly a natural gas exporter, NOK has not…
Daily Insights
Is The HKD Peg The Biggest Macro Trade For 2023?
Since December of last year, USD/HKD has been trading on the weaker side of its convertibility band, around 7.85. In fact, up until November of 2022, HKD weakness prompted the monetary authorities to heavily intervene in foreign exchange markets. This…
Daily Insights
When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
China’s $100 Trillion Housing Bubble Reaches Its Limit

China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Short Euro/Yen
A lot of ink has been spilled of late on the Bank of Japan’s incoming governor and the impact this will have on the central’s bank Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Japanese inflation has been climbing steadily – national and Tokyo, headline and core measures…
Daily Insights
MXN Is Bucking The Trend
The Mexican peso is the only major currency that has appreciated against the US dollar since the greenback’s February 2 bottom. Notably, USD/MXN has lost 1% over this period, despite the broad trade weighted dollar’s 1.9% appreciation. This MXN strength is…
Daily Insights
Turkey: Erdoğan’s Final Phase

Investors should avoid / stay underweight Turkish stocks and local currency bonds versus their respective EM benchmarks. Stay underweight Turkish sovereign credit.

Geopolitical Strategy, Commodity & Energy Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken, Ashwin Shyam

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