Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Jesse Kuri

StrategistGeopolitics, US Politics

Jesse Kuri helps investors understand how geopolitical and political developments shape financial markets and investment outcomes. His work focuses on assessing global risks…
Jesse Kuri
  • Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast
    GeoMacro
    Midterm Election: The BCA Forecast
    Will Democrats win the Senate or not? Yes. What happens if they fall short? Nothing! How will markets react to different midterm scenarios? A Democratic victory raises odds of a Blue sweep in 2028, and tax hikes in 2029! Will the US escalate the war...
    Matt Gertken, Jesse Kuri, Yushu Ma
    14 Oct 2026, 10:30 EDT, 15:30 BST
  • GeoMacro

    Global Risk Outlook Q4 2026

    We keep the Global Geopolitical Risk Score at 8 because there are still no ceasefires in Europe or the Middle East. Russia is provoking NATO, which will need to push back. Iran, emboldened by the lack of definitive US success, pushes its luck, which could invite a destructive response from the US. The Chinese economy remains fragile, increasing the likelihood of foreign belligerence. After the US midterm, President Trump faces fewer political constraints, allowing him to pursue a maximalist foreign policy to cement his legacy during his lame-duck period.

    Jesse Kuri, Matt Gertken

  • GeoMacro

    Liberation Day 2.0

    President Trump is raising tariffs again, now through 2027 – and more countries will retaliate this time. While markets can climb over “Liberation Day 2.0,” investors should be wary of today's aggressive policies engendering drastic policy change in 2028.

    Matt Gertken, Yushu Ma, Jesse Kuri

  • GeoMacro

    Global Risk Outlook Q3 2026

    As part of our new and improved GeoMacro service, please find attached our Global Risk Outlook, a quarterly digest of scenario probabilities and estimated market impacts for all the major geopolitical topics in the world today.

    Jesse Kuri, Matt Gertken

  • GeoMacro CoreMacro

    Ebola In The Battery Belt

    Ebola remains one of the world's deadliest viral diseases, but it is far less transmissible than COVID-19 or influenza. The most likely outcome remains containment rather than a global pandemic.

    Jesse Kuri

  • GeoMacro

    Midterm Election Dashboard!

    Midterms matter but geopolitics are the main risk this year. Markets will eventually refocus on geopolitical and inflation risks, raising Fed rate hike odds and supporting US dollar and stocks over global counterparts this year.

    Matt Gertken, Jesse Kuri

  • Strait Talk
    Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities
    Strait Talk
    Chief Strategist Matt Gertken, Roukaya Ibrahim, Jesse Kuri discussed: Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to expand their trade truce, as both face challenges, not least in the Strait of Hormuz.But China is not yet willing to apply pressure on...
    Matt Gertken, Roukaya Ibrahim, Jesse Kuri
    22 May 2026
  • US Midterms: What To Expect, What To Watch
    GeoMacro
    US Midterms: What To Expect, What To Watch
    Midterm elections occur every four years and thus constitute a normal risk, not significant uncertainty.
    Matt Gertken, Yushu Ma, Jesse Kuri
    13 May 2026
  • GeoMacro

    Senate Market Odds: Watch The Swing States

    Aggregate Senate betting market pricing appears too pessimistic on Democrats relative to state-level odds and early polling, suggesting a potential mispricing and a relatively sanguine attitude towards the still-unresolved conflict in Iran and its aftermath.

    Jesse Kuri

  • FICC

    The Birth Of The “Anti-OPEC”?

    The UAE’s exit from OPEC is unlikely to impact oil markets in 2026. Over the longer term, however, the emergence of an “anti-OPEC club” of producers favoring unconstrained oil output growth would create a headwind to crude prices and weaken the price floor that OPEC seeks to defend.

    Roukaya Ibrahim, Matt Gertken, Jesse Kuri