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France Is In Trouble, And The ECB Can’t Save It

by Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist  

The bond vigilantes are circling over several targets right now: France, the UK, and Japan. But France is the most vulnerable because of a toxic combination: a total debt ratio well above 300 percent plus the worst primary deficit in the G7 plus political gridlock, which will get even worse if Prime Minister Francois Bayrou loses the September 8th vote of confidence in his minority government. We explain why the ECB cannot save France, and the investment implications. Plus, we unveil our brand-new complexity ‘heat map’ for global asset allocation which leads to a new tactical trade to underweight world communication services (WTEL).

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BCA Research | Counterpoint

A global macro strategy which uniquely synthesizes macroeconomics with psychology, behavioural finance, non-linear systems, complexity, and fractal analysis.

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