Here, There, and Everywhere Report - October 2026

The big risk for the markets remains a flare up in the Middle East conflict. The Fed appears to be targeting geopolitics as much as inflation fundamentals. By the logic of transitive properties, therefore, more war means more hikes. That’s negative. So why are we not bearish on equities and bonds? Because President Trump holds his own faith in his hands. With his unfavourability near all-time highs (Chart of the Month), the conflict in Iran is at its end. Our worry? A Democratic Party sweep that surprises in its intensity and thus forces markets to start pricing in a leftward tilt in 2028.