FICC

Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.

Special Report

Inflation concerns are starting to ramp up again due to potentially inflationary policies from the new Trump administration. These concerns mostly affect the US inflation outlook. Evidence from forward-looking indicators shows that the global disinflationary trend remains intact. Today’s Special Report covers the global inflation outlook in 2025 and the implications for inflation-linked bonds.

We forecast Treasury and corporate bond returns in three different economic scenarios. This report focuses on what returns might look like in a scenario where inflation is sticky and the Fed makes a hawkish pivot.

In today’s Strategy Insight, we discuss the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of Japan, following the 25-bps rate hike overnight, and what it means for JGBs and the yen.

This week’s report looks at the US dollar, from the lens of one very cyclical currency – the Australian dollar.

We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.

Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We review the performance of the portfolio in 2024 and discuss how to best position a global fixed income portfolio following the sharp rise in yields during the last months.

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we outline the three themes that we believe will drive commodity markets this year: (1) demand growth will remain sluggish across cyclical commodities (2) supply-side developments will ultimately be bearish for oil prices, and (3) traditional relationships between commodity prices and financial variables may not hold.

Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data.