CoreMacro

Chinese property developers will require at least RMB 500 billion in additional government funding to prevent further declines in housing completions for the rest of 2024. However, without addressing the underlying challenges, any new rescue measures similar to those announced in May are unlikely to effectively support the real estate market.

Investors should worry much less about a US or global recession than they should worry about the bubble in anything AI-related. This means staying overweight bonds and the JPY, underweight US tech and quasi-tech, and underweight the US. Plus: SGD/USD is vulnerable to reversal, while copper versus gold can rebound.

Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?

The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.

Special Report

China has become less reliant on exports to advanced economies, and its products have successfully penetrated developing economies. Exports to the US make up 3% of Chinese GDP, while exports to all developing economies account for 10% of its GDP. China’s trade pivot from advanced to developing economies has economic, political, and geopolitical ramifications.

Special Report

The US fiscal outlook is more unappetizing than it was before the pandemic, but we are not convinced that a difficult day of reckoning awaits. A Treasury market crisis is conceivable, but it is far from inevitable.

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

Special Report

In this Special Report, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s new service – GeoMacro Strategy – presents his controversial view that Trump could very well be a boon for globalization.

The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates but the global manufacturing cycle.

Special Report

Multinationals are attempting to expand their supply chains beyond China, but the relocation process has been slower than expected. In the coming years, however, geopolitical tensions, changes in China’s business environment, and rising competition from Chinese producers could accelerate multinationals' departure from China.