Insights

Next week’s CPI and PPI reports will be much more important determinants of the near-term Fed policy path than this morning’s employment report. However, if the trend of labor market tightening continues through year-end, it could lead to a re-acceleration of wage growth in 2027....

We review the track record of our broader investment strategy and individual calls. We also use this opportunity to close several positions that have become stale....

High-profile adoptions of the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) and the often-cited outperformance of TPA funds have generated FOMO among funds following an SAA framework. Buzzwords and vague rulesets frustrate anyone trying to learn more. We combed through the TPA literature, built practical examples,...

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2026....

Markets have become obsessed with the rise of global long-dated yields. To some extent, we agree with the concern. Bonds are trading on "vibes," alarmed by the incoherent US geopolitical policy. Oil prices are obviously the conduit between that policy and the markets. On the other hand, growth is al...

Investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to both equities and the economy. Despite a rising long end, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and both nominal growth and corporate profits is at five-year lows and falling. Remain overweight equities. Within Fixed Income,...

The wide crack spread reflects a bifurcated oil market. The severity of the crude oil disruption has recently softened, while the US-Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflicts have created a perfect storm for refined product markets. Going forward, even though conditions are not yet in place for the crack sp...

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, counterbalanced by a slight overweight to bonds, and a significant overweight to cash. The model is positive on the US dollar, modestly negative on gold, and bullish on copper and oil....

We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.9% over the next 10-to-15 years. In this update, we include hedging costs projections and revamp our scenario analysis to incorporate hypothetical outcomes to the AI capex cycle. ...

An investor might not guess it from the Trump administration’s impatience with bond-market, military and tariff roadblocks, but the US economy is faring just fine. Asset allocators should remain fully invested as per their benchmarks....