Insights

The S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated. We know that. But the critical question is not how many stocks are driving the market; it is how many factors are driving stocks. We define an AI risk factor to test whether AI has become the dominant common exposure throughout much of the factor...

After an exciting group stage, we discuss the trends that have shaped the tournament and update our 2026 World Cup prediction....

How should I hedge my portfolio for the next bear market? This is a question many of our clients face, and one that investors too often answer on the basis of intuition or narrative. The All-Defense Chartpack aims to provide a solid starting point for that analysis, grounded in empirical data. It ex...

The equity bull market is getting long in the tooth. Bonds should perform well once economic growth begins to slow. The dollar will strengthen over the coming months before resuming its downtrend. While crude has likely found a near-term floor, we favor metals over energy in the long run....

We discuss what recommendations to expect from the Fed’s balance sheet task force. We conclude that any future balance sheet consolidation will be smaller than many anticipate....

China holds a structural advantage in this "Age of Electricity" by operating the world's largest electricity system. However, this advantage has inherent limits, and the US remains competitive despite its challenges....

Section I maps how the broad distribution of wealth gains is supporting US consumption. Section II examines how countries can meet swelling electricity demand. The winners will find paths to build the infrastructure needed to power the high-tech future....

The dollar has had a strong run but its key supports from Fed repricing, positioning, and terms of trade are starting to fade. We close our tactical long USD positions and turn to short USD/JPY, where intervention risk makes yen shorts look increasingly dangerous....

Korea’s recent equity market tantrum is a warning signal for global risk assets. We are booking profits on the long Asian semiconductor stocks / short US hyperscalers trade and downgrading Korea from overweight to neutral in an EM equity portfolio....

AI dominates markets, but concentration is risk. Real Estate is the diversifier. It outperformed during the Dot-Com bust and will do so again if the AI trade unwinds. Even Office, the sector arguably most exposed to AI disruption, will prove more resilient than bears expect....