Fears of Europe’s decline due to Russian aggression and shifting US policy are overblown. President Trump’s tough stance on Ukraine is a strategic move to consolidate domestic support, not an abandonment of Europe, while Russia’s threat is exaggerated. As Europe responds with higher defense spending...
Are you sure you are in a trade war-induced selloff and/or recession? Or, is America – writ large – the bubble? Fed a steady dose of fiscal profligacy over the past five years, the US economy and its various associated assets have become fat and complacent. As such, the end of the fiscal gravy train...
Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy....
It is time to bet on brick-and-mortar again. The next time you step around your partner's Amazon package on your way to a physical store, consider this: Rock-bottom investor expectations, attractive initial fundamentals, and ongoing demographic shifts make Retail Real Estate a buy for the first time...
Our defensive strategy for 2025 is coming to fruition so we are re-initiating some of our defensive and risk-off trades. Tariff implementation, hurdles in the tax bill, and geopolitical shocks are materializing in the near term....
Investors see Europe as a museum: A continent stuck in the past, with no ability to innovate, much less generate profits. But is this view accurate? In this report we argue that the structural headwinds to European profitability are a thing of the past. Political change and improving sentiment are a...
Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors....
The MacroQuant model is no longer bullish on stocks but is not yet prepared to turn underweight. Subjectively, the Global Investment Strategy team is more bearish on equities than the model....
The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal support will surprise to the upside at the Two Sessions. But Trump's C...
