Gold

In this report, we explore opportunities in goldminer equities, AI infrastructure monetization, and Japan's tactical outperformance window.

Gold and goldminers have corrected 25% from January highs. With our commodity team bullish gold, we are getting long GDX. Goldminers offer a gold-linked hedge against macro outcomes that would likely be damaging for equities, while improvements in profitability, capital discipline, and balance-sheet quality make the sector attractive in its own right, and it is largely independent of AI risk.

In this Special Report we argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have reasserted themselves as gold's primary drivers — are set to shift from headwinds to tailwinds for the metal.

MacroQuant recommends underweighting equities and adopting a benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, bearish on gold, neutral on copper, and bullish on oil.

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, is very positive on the US dollar, downgrades gold to underweight, upgrades copper to overweight, and remains very bullish on oil.