The flurry of global political instability that we expected after the US election is coming to pass. Investors should de-risk in the near term as stocks are flying high but face the turmoil of Biden's last months and then Trump tariffs....
In our Alpha report, we deliver our Annual Forecast. The current macro narrative is that the US will continue to outperform the rest of the world, in large part because President Trump will again deliver fiscally led growth and global tariff carnage. In our view, 2025 will be the year of “Peaks.” Pe...
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that...
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that...
The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for n...
Today, we are unveiling an update to our MacroQuant model. The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees downside risk to stocks going into December and recommends increasing duration exposure in global fixed-income portfolios....
Today, we are unveiling an update to our MacroQuant model. The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees downside risk to stocks going into December and recommends increasing duration exposure in global fixed-income portfolios....
On October 15, speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, Donald Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” On Monday, he put those words into action by threatening to slap a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Coll...
The earnings season was good but failed to assuage investor concerns that earnings growth remains concentrated. Tepid earnings and sales beats were somewhat concerning. However, based on company commentaries, the US economy remains sound. While challenges remain, such as slowing global growth, a str...
