We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model....
This week, our screeners cover views on Trump 2.0, defensive US equity sectors, and a pullback in Singapore equities. Our first screener aims to hedge longer term inflation risks that Trump 2.0 will likely generate, targeting US equities that are highly correlated with future inflation expectations....
Private Real Estate and Public REITs differ beyond just being liquid or illiquid. Looking through surface-level metrics uncovers valuable choices for investors. When analyzing the opportunity for today’s next dollar, Private Real Estate is more attractive....
Inauguration Day or shortly thereafter will see either a global tariff of 10% or targeted but substantial tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. Treasury yields will rise on tax cuts, the dollar will stay strong, yet oil will also continue to rally, causing equity volatility in the near term....
Political instability combined with the maths of debt sustainability is much more concerning in France than in either the UK or the US. Go long UK gilts versus French OATs and go tactically long GBP/USD....
Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We review the performance of the portfolio in 2024 and discuss how to best position a global fixed income portfolio following the sharp rise in yields during the last months....
Can Singapore stocks continue the bull run into 2025? What does the city-state’s manufacturing and export outlook foretell? Is the Singapore dollar still competitive? See our analysis and investment recommendations in today’s report....
This month, our Here, There, And Everywhere chartpack reiterates our main thesis for 2025: the three main narratives driving markets today – fiscal profligacy, trade war, and geopolitical conflict – will peak at some point in 2025. Why does this matter? All three have been tailwinds to US assets, an...
In this Special Report, we outline the three themes that we believe will drive commodity markets this year: (1) demand growth will remain sluggish across cyclical commodities (2) supply-side developments will ultimately be bearish for oil prices, and (3) traditional relationships between commodity p...
