Fiscal policy, not tariffs, is now driving markets as Congress advances the One Big Beautiful Bill. The Senate cannot afford to remove the spending cuts in the bill, as they risk sparking a bond market riot. Even with this more modest bill, US interest rates are already pressuring housing and labor ...
After considering some of the most common bullish arguments, we stand by our recession view and reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations....
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash....
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash....
In Section I, Doug warns that US trade policy may produce a considerably worse outcome than investors currently expect. The administration’s apparent 10% tariff baseline is likely to be negative for the US economy and particularly the small business sector. Investors should remain defensively positi...
