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Currencies

Swedish Spreads Augur Poorly For Eurozone Stocks And Currency
The Swedish economy’s cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade make it a reliable bellwether for global growth. Sweden is facing significant domestic weakness. Employment growth declined by 0.14% y/y in July and households’ debt burden stands at 155% of…
Daily Insights
European Asset Returns Post Carry Trade Unwinding
BCA Research’s European Investment strategists looked at previous episodes of carry-trade blowups and assessed the performance of the Eurozone’s key sectors, national markets, and currencies three and six months thereafter. Under both investment horizons,…
Daily Insights
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Time To Play Defense

Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Month-In-Review: The Message From Flows

This report looks at the latest developments in G10 economies and implications for bond and FX market strategy.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Beige Book Shows Signs Of Slower Employment
The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the evolution of economic conditions. …
Daily Insights
USD/JPY Will Drop To 115
Many currencies have registered sizable gains against the US dollar over the last two months. Most notably, the yen has been one of the best G7 performers since the greenback began depreciating. It now trades at 143 against the US dollar, marking a 11% gain…
Daily Insights
August In Review
The risk-on soft-landing narrative dominated investors’ psyche last month and pro-cyclical assets topped the August return ranking. Asian currencies led the pack by a wide margin, while the dollar was the largest laggard. Markets pricing in an upcoming Fed…
Daily Insights
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ASEAN Currencies: Can The Rally Continue?

The ongoing rally in ASEAN currencies will fizzle sooner rather than later as they are not supported by fundamentals. The ringgit and the baht, however, will fare better than the peso and the rupiah during the coming global risk-off period. This report explains why.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Is The Fed Right To Declare Mission Accomplished?

Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Tokyo CPI Consistent With Further Policy Normalization
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins, reaching 2.6%, 2.4% and 1.6% y/y, respectively.…
Daily Insights

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