Latest from BCA Research
This morning's employment report, particularly the downward revisions to prior months, strengthens our conviction that the US economy is headed for recession.
Central bank gold buying is likely to remain a tailwind for the yellow metal, supporting a continuation of the rally over the coming years. We maintain a long strategic position in COMEX gold and recommend an overweight to the yellow metal within commodity portfolios.
The NFL is opening the gates to the barbarians. No majority ownership is allowed...yet. However, that will not limit the upside in Growth Equity investments. Investors should cheer, so should fans.
Technicals and Safety lead the way in August. USHQ outperformed its benchmark, despite early month market sell-off.
The 15 percent slump in the relative valuation of US tech stocks versus bonds is a bubble starting to burst. Yet the adjustment has been relatively benign so far because a large part has come from the bond price going up. Unfortunately, the adjustment has much further to run and could ultimately turn ugly. The easiest way to play the AI bubble bursting is to go structurally overweight the yen.
Waging trade wars in a global multipolar order is folly. The US trade war against China has been an utter disaster for Washington, DC. None of its goals have been accomplished, whereas Beijing is making significant inroads into new markets. Somewhat heretically, we suggest that American policymakers will eventually realize this reality and pivot towards a surprising new strategy.
We remain concerned that the risk-reward for equities is limited above our end-of-the-year target of 5,500 for the S&P 500. There is seasonality to consider, as well as positioning and sentiment. As such, we are not necessarily bearish because a recession is certain. But, rather, that the upside to the AI mania is uncertain. Long term? The real bubble may be in America, broadly speaking. As such, more downside to USD could be ahead.