CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.
MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a negative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.
For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point.
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?
Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.
Deflation remains prevalent in the Chinese economy. The longer authorities delay a big bang-type stimulus, the more entrenched deflation will become. Hence, a cyclical upswing in Chinese stocks is unlikely, although there might be short-term rebounds.
Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it did in the 1990s.