CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.
The conditions for a sustainable rally in Chinese stocks have not been met. In this report we discuss the four signposts which we will closely monitor to gauge when it will be warranted to upgrade our stance on Chinese equities both in absolute terms and relative to the global stock benchmark.
UAE markets are a simultaneous play on interest rates, crude prices, and global trade. None of them is presently favorable, with rising interest rates being the main threat to the UAE economy and stock market.
Unlike in the past, Saudi Arabia is currently pursuing a counter-cyclical policy. This is the right policy and could lead to a re-rating of this bourse in the long run. In the short term however, rising interest rates, tight fiscal policy and lower oil prices will lead to growth deceleration and weigh on share prices.
The decline in the US CPI is a tailwind for European stocks, but does it compensate for weaker global growth?
A client concerned about the slump in asset prices, the stubbornness of inflation, and rising bond yields asks what went wrong, and what happens next? This report is the full transcript of our conversation.
The HK dollar is under an assault from rising US interest rates and a weak economy. To defend the exchange rate peg, the HKMA will continue to tighten liquidity, which will boost HK interest rates above those in the US across the entire yield curve. That will cause major damage to this economy and HK-domiciled companies' stocks. Downgrade the MSCI HK equity index within a global portfolio from neutral to underweight.