The pound will reach $1.60 if ‘America’s Brexit’ cancels out ‘Britain’s Brexit’. Meanwhile, the flight from the fiat dollar to non-fiat bitcoin will enable the preeminent cryptocurrency to reach $200,000+....
The Fed’s 2025 interest rate projections reveal two camps within the committee. One group looking for no rate cuts this year and another looking for 50-bps of easing. We think the second group’s forecast will turn out to be more accurate....
Since our last missive on June 15, three trading days have passed. The S&P 500 is up 0.2%, the US 10-year Treasuries yield has declined by 3 basis points, Brent crude is up 2.7%, gold is down by 2%, the JPY is down 0.7%, and DXY is up 0.7%. Our message prior to the start of these three trading days ...
Even if Iran tries to revive talks, the US has an irresistible opportunity to dismantle its nuclear program. Tactically, investors should favor Treasuries over the S&P, defensive sectors over cyclicals, energy stocks over cyclicals, and US stocks over European stocks in the near term....
Israel’s attacks on Iran will continue until Iran is forced to strike regional oil supply to get the US to restrain Israel. That may not work. Investors should prepare for a broader economic impact of the conflict....
The EM EPS recovery has been narrow, solely driven by TMT stocks in China, Korea, and Taiwan. EM corporate profits are set to contract in the next six to nine months. Unlike in the past, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for EM share prices....
Recently, small-cap stocks have shown signs of outperformance. In this report, we examine whether the rebound is sustainable by analyzing long-term structural trends, the macroeconomic backdrop, the impact of tariffs, and other key factors....
Switzerland looks pristine, but the near-term risks are mounting. Deflation pressures, overvalued assets, and a highly exposed export sector leave the economy vulnerable to a slowdown. This report explores why the SNB will ease more than markets expect, and how to position across CHF, equities, and ...
