The real reason to own bonds is for their higher propensity to melt up, but anticipating those melt-ups is crucial. We list four indicators to monitor closely in 2025....
Odds are rising that the trade-weighted US dollar will roll over and depreciate sometime next year. However, USD weakness will not be due to stronger ex-US growth. Rather, economic conditions in China and Europe will continue to underwhelm. Therefore, a weaker US dollar will not boost prices of cycl...
Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners. China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties wi...
While AI deployment creates compelling investment opportunities, hyperscale facilities are not the only path forward. Investors should consider Office conversions into colocation Data Centers as the next dollar opportunity....
This month, our Here, There, And Everywhere Chartpack summarizes our main thesis for 2025: the three main narratives driving markets today – fiscal profligacy, trade war, and geopolitical conflict – will peak at some point in 2025....
Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026. This stimulus will likely embolden Trump to impose tariffs on major trade partners. Thi...
Four years after the pandemic, it feels like there has not been enough self-reflection of that fascinating period in history. One lesson for the world of finance continues to go ignored....
