We revisit our view on the “fiscal gravy train” as well as President Trump’s negotiating style. We re-print parts of our March 2024 net assessment, particularly for the benefit of our new clients who have joined us at BCA Research. Our analysis of President Trump’s first term is our guide into how t...
Trump’s territorial ambitions threaten to deliver negative surprises and “black swan” risks during his four-year term. Military conflicts on the Mexican border raise the biggest risk, but US intervention in Panama can never be ruled out. The investment impact will be limited unless the trans-Atlanti...
Argentina is entering a regime shift from the traditional short boom-bust cycles of the past 50 years. Profound structural reforms will result in a productivity boom, leading to a more durable economic expansion while keeping with the disinflation trend. Authorities will likely lift capital and curr...
We expect market volatility to remain elevated due to uncertain economic, monetary, and trade policies. Barbell is the best portfolio strategy at this time. We recommend boosting defensive allocations to lower portfolio beta. We downgrade Industrials to equal weight and upgrade Pharma to overweight....
The 10% tariff hike announced on Saturday will likely serve as the opening salvo in a broader wave of protectionist measures. In this report, we assess the increase in US import tariffs on China. While the direct impact on China’s overall economy may be manageable, the country’s economy faces signif...
Markets and forecasters anticipate a “Golden Age” for Trump’s America, with US growth expectations soaring while the rest of the world lags. However, this extreme optimism means that there is a lot of room for disappointment. Cooling income growth, weak housing and less deficit spending than expecte...
The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet....
The latest version of the MacroQuant model suggests that the bull market in US stocks is winding down. The model expects Treasury yields to fall later this year but is not ready to go long duration just yet....
