BCA's Iran Conflict Daily Dashboard
Real-time charts on the Hormuz crisis, energy, and macro risk
Conflict
These charts show daily data on missile and drone attacks launched from Iran towards the Gulf countries. They provide context on the intensity and phases of the unfolding conflict.
The number of drones and missiles launched at the UAE by Iran.
Total drones and missiles launched by Iran at the Gulf States.
The rate at which missiles and drones are launched indicates the progress and stage of the conflict.
Total events of aggression by Iran at the Gulf States.
Total attack events on neighbors by attack method.
Number of protest events in Iran, by nature of protest.
Confirmed deaths by actor group.
Attack events on Iran by the US and/ or Israel.
Attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz will discourage ships from passing through.
The region is a key international aviation hub, and air traffic was halted at the start of the war.
The conflict raises oil prices and inflation, which will hit President Trump's and the Republican Party's popularity as the US enters the midterm election campaign season.
US appetite for war is likely fading with Iranian resilience, the threat of higher prices and the upcoming US Midterms.
Iran's resilience has likely dragged the conflict on for longer than the US would have wanted.
Energy Flows
Gulf countries produce a significant portion of global crude oil, natural gas, and refined products. After the start of the war, these products were halted and could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Increased traffic through the strait would suggest a softening of the war.
Significant outages on marked infrastructure will exacerbate the conflict's energy supply shock.
Gulf energy producers are cutting crude output.
Post-conflict, flows through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed.
Post-conflict, flows through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed.
All product shipments through Hormuz are impacted.
All product shipments through Hormuz are impacted.
All product shipments through Hormuz are impacted.
Shipping through the Suez Canal is not a viable alternative.
Shipping through the Suez Canal is not a viable alternative.
Around 20% of oil and products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. The longer that tanker traffic through the strait is constrained, the worse the global energy supply shortage.
Tankers are currently wary of crossing the Strait of Hormuz, given the risk of attack from Iran
High seaborne oil freight rates will pass onto oil and petroleum product prices.
Existing crude on water could help smooth out oil supply disruptions.
Continued disruption will exacerbate overall supply chain pressures.
Disrupted crude supplies from the Middle East will likely reduce Chinese refinery run rates.
US oil and gas production could ameliorate the Middle East oil disruption.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserves is at historically low levels.
Europe and Asia are most at risk from the oil supply disruption.
Europe and Asia are most at risk from the overall energy supply disruption.
Commodities
This conflict could be the largest energy shock since the Ukraine war in 2022. The impact will extend beyond the energy market. Hydrocarbons are not only used as energy sources but also as inputs for other materials, most notably fertilizer. The Gulf states have also diversified their economies in recent years, and now refine metals, which means the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz will influence metal prices.
Steep backwardation in crude futures curves suggest that investors do not expect a prolonged supply disruption.
Brent’s 1st-12th contract spread is at its widest since the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
The dated-to-front line Brent spread measures the difference between the physical dated Brent price and the frontline Brent futures price, signaling a tightness in the spot market.
Sharp premium on Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude indicates relative scarcity.
Sharp premium on Oman’s crude indicates relative scarcity.
Brent-WTI spread has been very volatile.
Diesel prices have increased by more than crude oil.
Gasoline prices have increased by more than crude oil.
Heating oil prices have increased by more than crude oil.
Jet fuel prices have increased by much more than crude oil.
Propane price gains have slightly outpaced crude prices.
Surging diesel prices point to rising costs for trucking, rail, shipping, farming, and heavy industry.
Surging gasoline prices point to rising costs for drivers, signalling pressure on household budgets.
Surging heating oil prices raise utility bills for households and businesses that rely on oil for space heating.
Surging jet fuel prices signal upward pressure on airfares and shipping rates.
Surging propane prices point to higher costs for space and water heating, cooking, and operating farm equipment.
Natural gas prices have surged ahead of the restocking season.
US natural gas prices are relatively insulated from ex-US market developments.
As Asian LNG shipments tighten, coal will become an increasingly attractive substitute for EM Asia
Higher aluminum prices reflect disrupted Gulf supplies while copper remains rangebound.
Surging fertilizer prices reflect disrupted Gulf supplies.
Surging energy and fertilizer prices point to higher agricultural costs.
Surging energy and fertilizer prices point to higher agricultural costs.
Macro
The energy shock is occurring while inflation remains only partially controlled worldwide. Financial markets will react if inflation expectations increase as the conflict persists over a longer period.
