Yield Curve
Is A Bearish Rates View Still Appropriate…
Highlights Chart 1Track The CRB/Gold Ratio
Track The CRB/Gold Ratio…
Highlights Chart 1Look For Rate Hikes In H2 2019
Look For Rate Hikes In H2 2019…
The hiatus in the Fed’s rates-normalization policy in 1H19 in the wake of its capitulation to financial markets, supports our bullish view on gold prices, as it raises the risk of an inflation overshoot later this year. Per the Fed’s dual mandate, inflation and employment gauges are signaling the…
Highlights Yield Curve Drivers: A rebound in rate hike expectations will cause the curve to steepen somewhat during the next few months, though accelerating wages limit the upside. The yield curve will not invert until after long-dated inflation expectations are fully re-anchored, probably not…
Highlights Chart 1Checklist To Buy Credit
Checklist To Buy Credit…
Highlights Investors ran for cover in December as they succumbed to a litany of worries regarding the outlook. The key question is whether the pessimism is overdone or an extended equity bear market is underway. Our outlook for the U.S. and global economies has not changed since we published…
Highlights Differences of opinion are what make a market, and we’ve got a big one when it comes to the Fed: The money market says the fed funds rate goes no higher than 2.75%; BCA says 3.5% by the end of 2019, and possibly 4% sometime in 2020. We are confident in our assessment of the economy’…
Highlights Late-cycle pressures will keep pushing bond yields higher. Global growth will remain above trend in 2019, keeping unemployment rates low and preventing central banks from turning dovish. The unwind of crisis-era global monetary policies will continue. Slowing central bank asset…
A Look At Doc YC’s Record…