Yield Curve
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Second Fastest Hiking Cycle Ever?
Monthly Portfolio Update: Can The Fed Achieve A Soft Landing? Hint: It Doesn’t Have A Good Track Record…
Executive Summary Above Fair Value
Above Fair Value…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for the Chinese economy. In the US, flagging mortgage and…
Executive Summary Spreads Near 2017-19 Average
Spreads Near 2017-19 Average…
Executive Summary To understand the economy and the market we must think of them as non-linear systems which experience sudden phase-shifts. The pandemic introduced phase-shifts in our lives, which led to phase-shifts in our goods demand, which led to phase-shifts in monthly core inflation.…
Highlights Chart 1Reduce Credit Exposure
Reduce Credit Exposure…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom index by a robust +48bps in Q1/2022 – an impressive performance given the significant uncertainties stemming from the Ukraine war, surging commodity prices and hawkish central banks. This outperformance came…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds
Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth
Tighter Financial Conditions May Affect Growth…
Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We note the possible mechanisms of action for excess savings…